The (Eastern) European Union Is Born
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
For a while it looked as if Vladimir Putin might go down in history as the man who lost the Ukraine. However, Russian patience, aided by EU inertia, has paid dividends, and Kiev has now returned to the Kremlin's fold under the guidance of the Donetsk mafia.
Although the enthusiasm for NATO waned in the wake of the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, the majority of Ukrainians still favoured closer ties with Europe: the country would have had a vital role to play in any pan-European energy policy, such as that promoted by the EU but which has yet to get off the starting blocks, and the Commission seemed to be looking at an open goal. In true eurocratic style, however, the boat sailed while the crew argued about what colour life-jackets to wear, and Ukrainian accession to the EU is just a dimly remembered fantasy.
Having poached what would have been a jewel in the EU's crown, Moscow now appears to be going even further, and may be on the verge of creating a union of its own. On January 1st, Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan officially launched a customs union, and whilst the project has been overshadowed by differences of opinion between Moscow and Minsk, Putin now is suggesting that Ukraine should be a part of this union. Although President Yanukovich has yet to indicate his acceptance or otherwise, following a meeting with the Russian prime minister he did confirm that Kiev would "considerably adjust both its domestic and foreign policies", and that his aim was to break down "artificial barriers" between his country and Russia.
Even more interesting, is the statement by First deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov that Russia may be about to scrap the Ruble and adopt a single common currency with
Belarus and Kazakhstan. With the Ruble gaining in strength, and the Ukrainian Grivna in freefall, the attractions of a single currency would be obvious to a country that is keen to renew fractured trading relationship with Russia.
Putin may not have lost the Ukraine, but Barroso clearly has.
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