Halonen to challenge Blair?

Tarja Halonen

As EU heads of state prepare to gather in Brussels this week and contemplate the Union's new structures post-Lisbon, the question of who exactly will take up the new position of President of the Council continues to be the source of much speculation.

Most of that speculation has thus far centred on former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, a man seemingly with as many enemies as friends, and who has been the front runner for quite some time.

He has some advantages; a previous job as leader of a major European power, a good relationship with Washington and Beijing, a strong charismatic presence; but also some disadvantages, namely his participation in the Iraq war and his country's failure to embrace the Euro.

And with the position lacking that all-important job description, many feel that whoever is first to take up the role will be able to set the template for those that follow, some see this as a compelling reason for selecting a candidate with a dominant political personality, such as the former PM.

However, recently cracks have begun to appear in the Blair bid, most notably due to the Iraq war, which have seen him lose friends in Europe (particularly the smaller countries such as Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands who are pushing for a candidate from a smaller nation), paving the way for others to emerge.

There have been a few names mentioned, but one late runner, Finnish President Tarja Halonen, is starting to emerge with more than a little credibility; so much so that the previously nonplussed Finnish press have started to run stories of her possible victory.

Of course she doesn't have the profile of Blair, but neither is she tainted with his Middle Eastern follies, and she is, like Blair, a member of the Social Democrat family (so no conflict with the centre-right Commission President Jose Manuel Barosso).

For his part, Mr Barosso has stated that his new Commission will make a point of increased gender equality, again leading to speculation that a woman will fill one of the EU's new top jobs. Former Irish President Mary Robinson had been touted, but after ruling herself out over the weekend, Halonen once more gains credence in the gender stakes (paving the way for the Irish government to nominate former European Parliament President Pat Cox as its choice of Commissioner).

This all depends on more furious negotiations, which will have to take into account the added position of High Commissioner for External Relations. Germany had previously coveted that position, but with Angela Merkel's surprise choice of centre-right colleague Guenther Oettinger as her government's choice of Commissioner, it seems likely that the new position will go to a centre-left choice (something the German left had demanded) albeit one from another member state.

With a significant amount of horse trading still to go before the end of the month when the current Commission mandate expires, and with the UK still to nominate a Commissioner of its own (one rumour has Chris Patten for High Commissioner, a choice that would all but end Blair's ambitions, but one fraught with domestic dangers for Gordon Brown), Tarja Halonen cannot be discounted so easily, specially if the 'small sate' coalition can grow. But with the big hitters still behind him, Blair remains favourite for now.