START-2 Negotiations Under Threat...

The United States is absolutely right to reject Vladimir Putin's criticism of the proposed missile defence shield. Talk of "maintaining the balance" is misleading: Putin simply does not want his country to lose the one playable card it holds.

Whilst Russia continues with its plans to modernise its armed forces, the Kremlin is well aware, and has admitted, that it cannot hope to match NATO's conventional forces, and must therefore rely upon its nuclear deterrent. However, that deterrent is creaking, with the much touted Bulava ICBM project struggling - quite literally - to get off the ground. Much Russian military equipment is left over from the Soviet era, and is still manned by conscripts of questionable motivation. Corruption is rife in the upper echelons of the military, and traditional allies - free of their chains - are leaning towards the west.

Talk of creating "new offensive weapons" to counter the proposed US defences should been seen in the context of a military machine that is being forced for the first time to shop abroad for arms - France might do well to seriously reconsider its plans to sell a Mistral class carrier to Russia following these latest threats.

President Obama held out an olive branch when he scrapped the Czech and Polish-based proposals. Dmitry Medvedev responded by cancelling missile deployments to Kaliningrad, and the world smiled. Now Putin has stepped onto centre-stage, and the cold war rhetoric comes spewing forth once again.

Western concerns about the Iranian nuclear programme are genuine and understandable: Putin needs to understand that both the nuclear technology, and the launch vehicles, were initially supplied by his country. Russia must accept political responsibility for the unease brought about by the programme that they themselves made possible.

Putin's outburst must also be considered in another context: he is being sidelined by Medvedev, who has shown himself to be a sharp operator, with a good understanding of the Western position. As Prime Minister, Putin is shouldering the blame for the economic situation in Russia, a situation which Medvedev never misses an opportunity to mention. By undermining START-2 negotiations, Putin can turn the tables damage his successor on the international stage as both men look towards the Presidential elections in 2012.

What Putin seeks to acheive through threats and bluster, Medvedev can bring about through diplomacy and sound economic policy. Sadly, the west-baiting bluster and flag waving will play well domestically, and the economic crisis means that ordinary Russians have yet to see the full benefit of Medvedism.

The West should pay particular attention to the forthcoming Ukrainian Presidential elections. That country has seen its economy contract be a staggering 14% this year, and in such conditions its grip on democracy may be more tenuous then we might realise. Whilst the Kremlin has put its hands on the situation, so has the west. A perceived failure in democratisation and economic liberalisation in the Ukraine would give Putin a huge boost. It will enable him to pass the buck over the economic crisis, and allow him to return to the centralised system he is more comfortable with. The way in which ordinary Russians surrendered the progress made during the Yeltsin presidency suggests that the electorate will be quick to buy back into the Vozhd mentality. The only people to benefit from that will be the US arms industry.

www.cartwright.eu.com