Thinking Outside the Box

The economic and financial tsunami that has had such a major impact on much of Europe and the US, as well as the shockwaves which have followed in the Far East and in the developing world are, of course, well documented.

But as with the concept of “freakonomics” – cause and effect and other consequences can create strange reactions. Some useful thoughts would be:

1. Think counter-cyclically. In previous times of economic down­turn, a phenomenon in much of the manufacturing industry was to see lay-offs, closures, reductions in working time, product shifts etc. But we also saw almost all businesses responding in the same way and at the same time.

When the economic bounce-back oc­curs (as inevitably, it will), the scram­ble is on to re-hire, re-open, reactivate and return to the knitting. Not easy, if everyone is also trying to do this.

This is why businesses, who want to be a bit cleverer, should look at the possibility of bucking the trend. Think counter-cyclical.

2. This is also a lesson in the EU world of lobbying, public affairs and business representation. Companies facing economic down­turn look quickly for the “soft options” to save money and (they think) to help their bottom line.

Lobbying in its various forms is seen as one of the immediate soft options.

Although, again thinking counter-cyclically, there is no better time to argue a business case against the monstrous regiment of regulators and legislators, than when the politi­cal message is to “help”, “support”, “encourage”, etc. the world of business and to increase competitiveness and secure jobs.

If this has some resonance with the white noise of the Lisbon agenda then the argument for maintaining and, indeed, increasing the investment in lobbying and business representation is well made. Now is the time to turn up the heat and to focus on anti-business activities pushed by many regulators.

It is not a time for weakness.

3. This is also a time when the relative status and muscular power of different DG’s in the European Commission also start to get shuffled.

Again the “power” of the regulator in the current economic climate descends and the influence of the pro-competitive agenda is in the ascendency.

This does not mean that DG SANCO or DG ENVIRONMENT will go away, but they are, increasingly, under careful scrutiny in relation to their activities. A point that will not be lost in the allocation of Commissioners as 2009 rolls on.

So, in summary, this is a time for business to think outside the box, flex a few muscles and re-focus. They might be surprised.